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The trade war has brought increased attention to the soya bean trade between the US and China with 2019 offering conflicting narratives.
Following an almost total halt in exports of soya beans to China in the last quarter of 2018, the new year has brought new hopes for American farmers and the dry bulk shipping sector.
Starting a trade war is bad for everyone, and shipping is right in the eye of the storm. Adding a new sanctions regime involving the US and Iran is putting another layer of stress on a shipping industry that is struggling to generate profits. Not surprisingly, the IMF’s estimate for world trade volumes was adjusted downwards for both 2018 and 2019 in July.
Though much uncertainty remains, the immediate commodity price increases and supply challenges caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are likely to be felt throughout 2022. Also, recently implemented sanctions on Russia are not likely to be lifted any time soon. This may have sustained spill-over impact on the global economy.
Though much uncertainty remains, the immediate commodity price increases and supply challenges caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are likely to be felt throughout 2022. Also, recently implemented sanctions on Russia are not likely to be lifted any time soon. This may have sustained spill-over impact on the global economy.
By examining our fleet-growth estimate alone, 2019 looks like a year in which the fundamental balance can only improve. But the trade war remains the wild card here.
Though much uncertainty remains, the immediate commodity price increases and supply challenges caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are likely to be felt throughout 2022. Also, recently implemented sanctions on Russia are not likely to be lifted any time soon. This may have sustained spill-over impact on the global economy.
Following years of disruption to US soya bean exports due to the US-China trade war, the first seven weeks of the 2020/2021 marketing year, which runs from 1 September to 31 August, have seen the strongest exports ever.
