BIMCO reported in our previous macroeconomics report in April 2017 that monthly indicators were showing a strengthening in the global economy. The firm growth dynamics in advanced economies have now, four months later, had a cascade effect on some emerging markets and developing economies (EMDE). This solid growth has sparked an appetite for EMDE assets and indicates that the market expects a pickup.
As freight rates are coming back from the abyss, their actual rise seems to be magnified beyond their actual performance. Some container spot freight rates are up more than 100% from the very low levels of last year, but may still be at a loss-making level now and so spot rates are not the best indicator for market profitability.
Since early July, the capesize rates have gone up and up. By mid-August, they had reached a breakeven level to become profitable. BIMCO estimates that a capesize ship on average fleet financing and operational cost levels, turns profitable when rates are above $15,300 per day.
The global tanker industry is directly linked to the global oil industry. Right now, demand for seaborne transport of oil is below normal and fleet growth is high, which means that the fundamental balance is uneven. The result is declining tanker earnings with the main culprit being the fast-growing fleet.
BIMCO invites you to join a free webinar discussing the latest outlook for the shipping industry.
US seaborne coal exports are up 57% in total volume and 61% in terms of tonne-miles for the first five months of 2017 compared to the same period last year. If US coal exports remain high throughout 2017 it will have a solid effect on the global seaborne coal trade and support the overall improvement in the dry bulk shipping industry.