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During the first seven months of 2021, only three actively trading Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have been sold for demolition.
Brazil’s soybean harvest is behind schedule due to heavy rain with exports down 31% y/y in the first two months of 2023. But despite the slow start, Brazil is headed for a record harvest and a sharp increase in exports during the coming month.
Preliminary shipping data from Oceanbolt shows a 1.7% y/y drop in Chinese iron ore import volumes in August. The volumes are, however, the highest since January and follow a 3.1% y/y increase in July. Year-to-date, Chinese iron ore imports are down 3.3% y/y, making up around 20% of global dry bulk volumes, but could be in for a bounce, benefitting the struggling Capesize segments.
Since 2006, the average container ship has doubled in size to 4,580 TEU and ships with a capacity of more than 12,000 TEU has accounted for 51% of the fleet’s capacity expansion. Today, just 626 ships provide 36% of the fleet’s capacity, and the trend is set to continue as the large ships dominate the order book.
Bauxite shipments arriving in China hit new record levels in the first quarter of 2022 and grew at an average annual rate of 12.8% between 2017 and 2021, significantly outpacing all other commodities which combined grew at an average of just 4.3% per year. So far in 2022, the appetite for bauxite imports has remained high and the price of aluminium has reached its highest level in 14 years.
During the first half of 2021, a total of 277 container ships have changed hands, a 103.7% jump from 136 ships bought and sold in the same period of 2020 (source: Vessels Value).
Container ships have reached their highest average age yet at 14.2 years, the highest average age of the three main shipping sectors. The dry bulk fleet has an average age of 11.9 years whereas tankers on average are 12.8 years old.
What a difference a year makes! At the end of 2021, container ships were enjoying a historically strong market and freight and time charter rates had yet to peak. At the same time, dry bulk ships were seeing multi-year high rates slipping away, although still enjoying better returns than in previous years. However, tanker ships were seemingly still stuck in a COVID market rut without any immediate hopes for a strong comeback.
According to BIMCO estimates from the upcoming Dry Bulk Shipping Market Overview and Outlook report, deliveries of bulk carriers should drop to 23.8 million DWT in 2024. The sector’s orderbook currently adds up to 66.7 million DWT, a mere 6.9% of the bulker fleet, the lowest ratio since at least 1996.
Chinese crude oil imports fell year-on-year in June and July, ending a streak of five months of accumulated year-on-year growth.
