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The record-high Chinese imports towards the end of 2012 ensured that quantities of Chinese iron ore reached an all-time high of 744 million tons for the full year, according to Chinese customs data. Meanwhile, port inventories have been decreasing considerably since early September, suggesting that the demand should stay sturdy in the coming year.
The year 2012 has been a turbulent one for the global economy and the outlook has deteriorated since our last forecast.
There is room for some optimism in the container ship business, as witnessed by the number of loaded containers going into the ports on the US West Coast. Here, demand increased by 1.7% during 2012, more than making up for the fall in demand in 2011.
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Global oil demand has never been higher, despite recent revisions. Demand is driven by growth in Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and FSU, while requirements in North America and EU are contracting in 2011 as well as in 2012. The IEA has revised down its demand outlook by 0.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) for 2011 to reach 89.3 and by 0.4 mb/d for 2012 to reach 90.7. Growth outlook now stands at a modest 1.1% in 2011 and 1.6% in 2012.
Projected oil demand continues to slide, with growth entirely driven by non-OECD countries. OECD-demand is expected to contract by 0.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) this year and 0.1 mb/d in 2012. The 2012 forecast by IEA leaves little room for optimism, as the current estimate is as low as 1.7% (1.5 mb/d)
Overall annual oil demand growth in 2012 is now expected to come in at 0.9% by the IEA (+800,000 barrels per day), close to last year’s 0.8%, which was a 10-year low (excluding the contracting years of 2008/2009). The rise is exclusively originating from non-OECD countries. The outlook was modestly curtailed by early July on the back of the weaker global economic situation. This translates into a rather slim fundamental support to the tanker segment, but fortunately tanker shipping is so much more than overall oil demand.
The global economy continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace than previous years. The slower economic development has been difficult for ship owners who, with a severe overhang of tonnage, have struggled with a depressed freight market since the start of the financial crisis back in 2008.
At the launch of the Fourth International Maritime Organization’s Greenhouse Gas Study, eyes rested primarily on the fact that CO2 emissions from the shipping industry rose between 2012 and 2018. The focus on this six-year period diverted attention from what should not have been missed – the year 2009.
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