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The turbulence of the past year has in many ways clouded the underlying fundamentals in the dry bulk shipping market, but with 2020 now behind us, we are in a better position to establish an overview of expectations for 2021.
Energy transition curbs demand growth
In absolute numbers, 2011 is going to be the new Number 1 in terms of the greatest amount ever of dry bulk tonnage leaving the fleet to be recycled. We are on course for more than 20 million DWT to be demolished, with the potential of reaching 25 million if owners continue to be attracted by the relatively high demolition rates and freight rates fail to improve significantly through the remainder of the year.
It looks like 2018 will be a year that shipowners should take advantage of, as the dry bulk fleet is likely to grow at the slowest pace seen since 1999, and BIMCO sees global demand growth outstripping supply growth in 2018.
The dry bulk shipping industry remains on the road to recovery, as demand continues to keep its nose just ahead of fleet growth, while scrapping and ordering remains subdued.
Iron ore provides 30% of the demand for the dry bulk market and, during 2016, its related tonne-mile demand went up by 6%. This was the key factor behind the overall demand side growth of 2.2%.
RightShip and INTERCARGO have today announced the launch of an important new quality standard for the dry bulk sector, DryBMS. The standard will be governed by a new NGO to be established later this year and will support the improvement of safety in the dry bulk segment.
Demand. The dry bulk commodity imports into and exports out of China we have seen in the first half of 2016 are very positive – and nothing short of extraordinary. But, putting it into perspective, compared to the devastating freight rate levels over the same period, it highlights that something is very wrong in the dry bulk market. The market is nowhere near balanced.
On 10 February 2016, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) hit 290. At that point, a bulk carrier regardless of its size, age and fuel-efficient qualities earned a time charter average of USD 2,417-2,776 per day.
Back in May, BIMCO disclosed a projected “road to recovery” for the dry bulk shipping industry. The main message back then on what the dry bulk sector must do to return to profitability was, and still is: “Scrapping ships and no new builds is the fastest road to recovery for the dry bulk market”.
