Market analysis

Impact of COVID-19 on Future Shipping Demand with BIMCO's Peter Sand

From the drastic decrease in oil demand to lockdown in manufacturing, Peter provided an overview of the macroeconomic challenges being faced by individual shipping sectors and subsequently indicators of how the breakbulk and project cargo sectors are faring through the current pandemic.

State of the Bunker Industry - Examining the Key Issues Stakeholders Face Today

This is not the post-2020 environment we expected. The event examined the key issues that marine fuel stakeholders from buyers to suppliers face today. How did we get here, and what can we expect in the months ahead? Is there any IMO 2020 hangover at all, or is the focus now only on dealing with the reality of new market dynamics and the changing economic landscape? Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO provided the Shipowners' Perspective.

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Get analysis of the dry bulk, oil tanker and container markets. The BIMCO shipping market analysis team writes a mix of quick insight and deep analysis with a focus on the fundamentals: supply and demand.

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March 2017

Meet BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst at Dry Cargo Conference 2017 - POSTPONED to 2018 -

BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, will be speaking at the Dry Cargo Conference taking place on 1-2 June 2017 at the RAI Exhibition and Convention Centre in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Discounts for BIMCO members available.

Is the dry bulk industry still on track for profitability in 2019?

This recent lift in freight rates is certainly positive, but there is still work to be done on the supply side. A significant level of demolition activity must be maintained, and increasing focus must also be on keeping slow steaming around. Estimating a return to profitability in the dry bulk industry remains a moving target, and one that differs from one company to the next. But by projecting a course for profitability, everyone in the industry can use it as a reference.

Dry bulk fleet exceeds 800 mill DWT as supply surges

The dry bulk fleet exceeded 800 mill DWT in January 2017, as the dry bulk fleet grew by 2.6% year on year.  BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst Peter Sand expects the dry bulk fleet to grow 1.6% for the full year in 2017, if the projected demolition activity of 19 mill DWT is realised.  The declining growth rate from the panamax, supramax and handysize segments was absorbed by a growing capesize fleet; the total fleet growth was stable in 2016. 

February 2017

Record high crude oil tanker deliveries adds instant freight rate pressure

January 2017 already accounts for 22% of the crude oil tankers previous year’s total deliveries, due to tremendous VLCC delivery growth.

January 2017

Dry Bulk Shipping: Q4 provided optimism, Q1 will make sure we don’t get carried away

Iron ore provides 30% of the demand for the dry bulk market and, during 2016, its related tonne-mile demand went up by 6%. This was the key factor behind the overall demand side growth of 2.2%.

Tanker shipping: A strong season lifts crude oil tankers before it is expected to hit the fan in 2017

From a crude oil market perspective, 2016 can be summed up as “eventful”. In January, the international sanctions on Iran were lifted, resulting in a very swift increase of their oil production capacities and subsequent re-entry into the global oil export market.

Container shipping: Good prospects for market improvement if focus is kept on the supply side

As the lowest level of newbuild containership deliveries since 2004 was combined with record breaking scrapping levels, net inflow of capacity amounted to just 246,000 TEU – a growth rate of 1.2% - probably the lowest ever.

Macro economics: 2016 brings lowest GDP growth rate since financial crisis began

It will not be a surprise if we see another downward revision of GDP growth in 2017...

Container shipping lines earned 42 USD less per TEU in 2016

The container shipping lines received an average rate 7% (42 USD) lower in 2016 than in 2015, if they operated in the spot market on all Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) trade routes. This has primarily been due to the devastating low rates received in the first half of 2016, as the average rate received in H2 2016 was 22% higher than the rate received in H2 2015. 

The shipping market in 2016 and looking forward

The shipping industry has its work cut out going forward in 2017 as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast the lowest level of global GDP growth since 2009. 2017 will see another year of die-hard competition, which now includes tankers. In 2016, the container shipping industry bit the bullet in terms of demolition and consolidation to help the market to recover. The dry bulk sector needs to copy that approach.