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As weak demand growth is forecasted for the coming quarters, the container shipping industry is set to return to negative margins.
US exports of crude oil have, since August 2018, continued to rise every month, with a new record high in January of 9.6 million tonnes.
Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO, talks to Alex Younevitch, managing editor for EMEA shipping at S&P Global Platts, about the container market and the challenges that it is facing from the escalating US-China trade war, the upcoming IMO 2020 regulation, and tonnage oversupply.
Peter Sand talks about Iran sanctions and the oil market from CNBC.
January 2016
The global production of steel dropped in 2015 compared to 2014, to a larger extent outside China, as China exported its surplus of steel to destinations across the globe; it is too complex to single out whether this is positive or negative for the seaborne dry bulk transport demand.
2016 continues where 2015 ended, with all eyes on China. This is mainly because of uncertainty surrounding the development of the world’s second-largest economy. When the first day of the Shanghai Stock Exchange of 2016 closed prematurely, the trading results echoed around the world. It warned us that we are in for a rough ride in 2016.
2015 never really took off, even though the global economic activity looked stronger earlier in the year. The negative indicators seen at the end of 2014 were not overcome, and we saw a significantly lower level of growth for global GDP in 2015 than in the previous five years. This was primarily due to the struggling emerging markets and developing economies, led by changes in China’s economic focus.
December 2015
International dry bulk shipowners seem only to scrap ships aged 18 years or older. While a couple of Chinese owners have scrapped ships that were even younger than that...
The current newbuilding prices for dry bulk ships has dropped so much, that they are now at the lowest level since 2003. As they have just passed the lows of 2012 heading downwards.
October 2015
2015 has been the year of the tanker. The fundamental improvements with slow supply-side growth for some years coupled with low oil prices from mid-2014 created strength on both sides.
The shipping market and underlying profitability can only improve if the fundamental conditions (supply and demand) also improve. Therefore transportation of larger volumes, longer sailing distances in general or a lower increase of dry-bulk fleet size is a prerequisite for better markets to arrive.
2015 will see a new record inflow of newbuilt tonnage. BIMCO forecasts close to 1.6 million TEU will be delivered by the end of 2015. This marks the highest inflow of new capacity ever.
All eyes are on China in recent months as most other non-Chinese economic indicators have been dwarfed by the government’s actions and markets’ reactions. It is all of the things that we don’t know about the Chinese economy that is worrying, not the fact that the economy is in a transition phase which inevitably will drive down GDP growth and change import and export patterns.
Peter talks to Gibraltar Shipping providing more insight on his role and views on current shipping trends.
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