The turbulence of the past year has in many ways clouded the underlying fundamentals in the dry bulk shipping market, but with 2020 now behind us, we are in a better position to establish an overview of expectations for 2021.
October has been the best performing month of 2020 in terms of US exports of the goods outlined in the ‘Phase One’ trade agreement between the US and China. Export values of these goods totalled USD 10.3 billion, breaking the previous high of USD 7.8b in September.
There has been much talk in recent weeks and months about Chinese coal policy, particularly with regard to imports from Australia, after anecdotal evidence suggest Chinese importers have been told to shun Australian thermal coal.
There is money to be made by both carriers and tonnage providers as volumes defy usual seasonality and remain strong into the fourth quarter of the year. On top of that, low bunker prices –, one of the keys to high profitability this year – look set to stick around.
This year, tanker shipping will not benefit from the usual strong winter seasonal effect. Though the new lockdowns being introduced in many countries are less strict than in the spring, the effect on tanker shipping will be worse, given the oil supply glut of Q2.
Record-breaking GDP drops seen in the second quarter of the year have been replaced by record-breaking growth rates in the third. Despite this, the major economies of the world have still not returned to pre-pandemic levels, except China.
The third webinar in our series on the future of the commercial shipping markets.
The webinar had Mark Williams, Managing Director at Shipping Strategy, as the special guest speaker and Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, debating the current developments in the shipping markets. The two touched upon the impact of the pandemic and the ways in which shipping sectors navigate through tumultuous times.
The second webinar in our series on the future of the commercial shipping markets.
Paul Marsh, Research Director at Navig8 Group as the special guest speaker and our very own Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand set the scene by discussing the macroeconomics changes brought by the pandemic and how they accentuated the geopolitical tensions felt by the oil tanker shipping industry. The two analysts then share their views on what lies ahead for the crude and petroleum products carries.
April 2018
BIMCO’s Deputy Secretary General Søren Larsen and Chief Shipping Analyst Peter Sand will be visiting Odessa, Ukraine to participate at the Grain & Maritime Days on 24 – 25 May 2018 at Black Sea Shevchenko Park Hotel, Odessa, Ukraine.
March 2018
Free trade provides prosperity and peace. It’s a fundamental principle to cherish and safeguard. All trade-restrictive measures are in principle bad for shipping. Right now, the international atmosphere is full of threats of retaliation and it appears likely that major trading partners with the US like the EU and China will hit back to draw a line in the sand for the US Administration and President Trump.
Following a seasonal surge in December 2017, the US seaborne export of oil products (materials derived from crude oil) reached the highest annual level ever, in terms of volume and tonne miles demand. An increase in volume, combined with a marginal increase in the average sailing distance, caused the total annual tonne miles demand to surpass the previous high set in 2013.
BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst will be visiting Singapore to be the moderator at BIMCO’s own seminar and networking event “Crude Oil Tankers: Road to Recovery”. Peter Sand will furthermore be participating in Maritime CEO Forum and a panel discussion at the 15th edition of Asia Pacific Maritime Conference. All three events are hosted in Singapore and will take place on 13-15 March 2018.
February 2018
What will the future bring? Overall demand growth is expected to be lower than in 2017, but still high enough to potentially improve the fundamental market balance.
The fleet is growing at the slowest pace since 1999, and solid growth in demand means that the dry bulk shipping industry should be facing another year of improvement to the fundamental balance.
It has been quite some time since macro-economic development has looked this positive and as supportive of shipping.
The future of oil demand and subsequently of tanker demand is very much policy driven. It has been so in the past to some extent, but in coming years this will be more apparent.
BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, will be participating at the 18th edition of Trans Pacific Maritime on 4-7 March 2018 in Long Beach, California.
Chinese seaborne imports of iron ore, coal and crude oil have all grown strongly throughout 2017. Both seaborne imports of crude oil and iron ore have reached the highest levels ever recorded, while coal reached the highest level in three years. Imports of crude oil and coal have benefitted the shipping industry to the greatest extent as both volumes and distances have increased.