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Chinese refinery crude oil throughput has reached its highest level ever, with total processed volumes up 12.0% in the first five months of this year compared to 2020, and up 10.9% from the same period in 2019.
The shipping number of the week provides numbers with a brief analysis of relevant developments in the shipping markets.
During the first three quarters of 2023, China has continued expanding its crude inventories by an estimated 0.7 million barrels per day (mbpd). These increased inventories could allow China to maintain strong exports of refined products even if crude oil imports are lowered.
The International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) targets for the use of zero or near-zero fuels in 2030 can be met using sustainable biofuels. Many different sectors will compete for those fuels, so shipping is focusing on transitioning to alternative green and blue fuels. Today, only 1% of bulk, container, and tanker ships are prepared for using these fuels and fuel availability is low.
The surge in US container imports continued in April when West Coast loaded imports amounted to 1.10m TEU.
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistical challenges started to emerge. Two years after the start of the war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia are limiting the country’s ability to export coal.
Over the next ten years, from 2023 to 2032, more than 15,000 ships with deadweight capacity of more than 600 million tonnes are expected to be recycled, more than twice the amount recycled in the previous ten years.
US soybean, maize, and wheat exports could fall 15% in 2023 due to droughts that affected harvests last year. However, the upcoming maize harvest may drive a recovery in US grain shipments from the fourth quarter onwards.
On 30 September 2022, China added 15 million tonnes to its 2022 export quota for oil products. The quota includes 13.25 million tonnes for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel as well as 1.75 million for low-sulphur marine fuel. If headed for the EU, it could be a welcome addition to the block seeking to replace on average 2 million tonnes of diesel imports from Russia when sanctions take effect from February 2023 and demand for heating increases in the winter months. It could also add some attractive tonne miles for product tankers.
China’s property market is estimated to account for approximately 35% of the country’s steel demand. It is an important driver for economic growth and raw materials like iron ore, coking coal, wood, and cement. Overall, the Chinese economy is a significant driver of dry bulk and more than 35% of dry bulk volumes are destined for China.
