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Despite the very strong freight rates and the apparently tight market, the all-important driver for dry bulk shipping, China, has in fact seen imports of its two largest dry bulk commodities shrink year-on-year so far this year. The two largest imported commodities for China, iron ore and coal are however, interestingly on two different trajectories, as the latter could be ending the year with higher total volumes than in 2020.
Bauxite shipments arriving in China hit new record levels in the first quarter of 2022 and grew at an average annual rate of 12.8% between 2017 and 2021, significantly outpacing all other commodities which combined grew at an average of just 4.3% per year. So far in 2022, the appetite for bauxite imports has remained high and the price of aluminium has reached its highest level in 14 years.
Despite hopes that a quick economic recovery in China would boost iron ore demand, 2023 has so far been a disappointment for the dry bulk shipping sector. During the first three weeks of the year, iron ore shipments fell 13.1% y/y, the lowest volume since at least 2019, worsening conditions for capesizes. In this period, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) declined by almost 500 points to 763 on 20 January, its lowest point since June 2020.
Recovering demand for US oil products has caused a 25.9% rise in US seaborne imports of oil products in the first seven months of 2021 compared to 2020, with imports so far this year totalling 26.1m tonnes.
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