Egypt, Port Said - Maximum Size
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Supply
We estimate that the crude tanker fleet’s capacity will grow 0.5% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025. Since the 2nd quarter of 2023, there has been renewed interest in contracting of new ships. The order book has increased 160% to reach 34.3m deadweight tonnes and now equals 7.4% of the trading fleet. Howe... Please follow the link to continue reading.
Cargo volumes in Red Sea area drop 21% due to attacks on ships
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Container ship fleet expands by 11%, fastest growth in 15 years
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Egypt, Kosseir - Crew Issues
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13% of world seaborne trade under attack from Houthis and Somali pirates
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Supply/demand balance
For crude tankers, we forecast that the supply/demand balance will tighten further during both 2024 and 2025. Low fleet growth, along with increasing sailing distances, create the foundation for the improvement despite a slowing of growth in oil demand. The product tanker supply/demand balance is... Please follow the link to continue reading.
Demand
We estimate that crude tanker demand will increase by 6.5-7.5% in 2024 and 2-3% in 2025. Cargo growth is forecast to be 2-3% in 2024 and 1-2% in 2024. Increased sailing distances due to the Red Sea crisis are expected to lift demand in the first half of 2024, whereas the continued shift of crude sup... Please follow the link to continue reading.
Macro environment
Global economic growth is estimated to have been 3.1% in 2023. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that growth in 2024 and 2025 will end up at 3.1% and 3.2% respectively. The IMF forecasts slower growth for both 2024 and 2025 in the US, China, Japan and India compared to 2023. On the oth... Please follow the link to continue reading.
Supply/demand balance
Houthis continue to attack ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, and there is no end to the conflict in sight. We therefore base our forecasts on the assumption that rerouting of ships away from the Red Sea and the Suez Canal towards the Cape of Good Hope may impact the market throughout 2024,... Please follow the link to continue reading.
