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The reshaping of global crude tanker markets continued in 2023. In 2022, sanctions shifted Russia’s exports from Europe to Asia while OPEC production cuts in 2023 increased the Americas’ share of exports. Brazil’s oil production increased by 12% year-on-year in 2023 while crude tanker exports rose 19%.
The spread between very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) and high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) has widened following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The HSFO price, however, could rise if Russian volumes coming into the market start declining due to sanctions.
On 9 August, the Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Minister announced that 71 coal miners failed to meet their domestic market obligations, and that 48 of them are now banned from exporting coal. The ban comes into force just as the EU ban on Russian coal takes full effect and demand for non-Russian coal increases.
In 2022, Chinese shipyards reached a market share of 47% and for the first time exceeded the combined market share of Japanese and South Korean shipyards.
Weak economic activity, a 10.5% increase in domestic coal mining, and a recovery in coal imports from Mongolia via rail alleviated coal shipments to China in 2022.
China is the world’s largest importer of crude oil, accounting for approximately 25% of global crude import volumes. The country’s crude imports are also equal to about 25% of global seaborne crude oil volumes which contributed to about 30% of dirty tanker trade tonne miles in 2021 according to Signal Ocean statistics. From 2010 to 2020, China’s crude imports grew at an average annual rate of 8.5% and have been the key demand driver for both crude oil and crude tanker demand.
Despite falling 1.1% m/m in both November and December, US retail sales volumes remain 13% above 2019 levels and 6% higher than the pre-COVID trend. However, sales volumes could return to trend during 2023 and thereby pose a risk for Asia to North America container volumes.
In 2023, sanctions on Russian oil exports by the EU caused a major shift in tanker trades and a 10% increase in average sailing distances for EU tanker imports. Now, attacks on ships in the Red Sea area have caused average sailing distances to increase a further 16% and tonne mile demand to increase 12% despite falling volumes.
The bad news for liner operators appears to have no end. In a normal year, the weeks leading up to Chinese New Year (CNY) bring an increase in volumes and freight rates. So far, however, the lead-up to CNY in 2023 has been the worst in 13 years.
Between 1996 and 2021, the lowest half-yearly tanker contracting volume was 3.0m DWT, recorded in the first half of 1999. Despite improved freight rates and a more positive market outlook, the first six months of 2022 ended with barely more than half that volume: only 1.6m DWT was contracted. Consequently, the order book to fleet ratio has fallen to 5.1% for both crude and product tankers, a ratio which is also the lowest since 1996.
