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The reshaping of global crude tanker markets continued in 2023. In 2022, sanctions shifted Russia’s exports from Europe to Asia while OPEC production cuts in 2023 increased the Americas’ share of exports. Brazil’s oil production increased by 12% year-on-year in 2023 while crude tanker exports rose 19%.
In October 2020, the order book for new container ships bottomed out at 8.4% of the combined trading fleet. For ships smaller than 8,000 TEU, the order book bottomed out one month later at 3.7% of the trading fleet, and only accounted for 18.2% of the total container order book. Interest in the smaller segments, however, is bouncing back after months of hibernation.
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electricity produced using renewable energy rose. Also slowed economic activity and high energy prices affected electricity demand.
On Friday 24 February, one year will have passed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. During that year, dry bulk exports from Ukraine have dropped 77.8% compared to the same period a year earlier, causing a decline in global dry bulk volumes. Seaborne exports have been restricted to agricultural goods and even those have been limited.
From mid-2020, global container export volumes saw strong growth, and combined with increasing port congestion it caused supply chain challenges and historically high liner operator financial results which have been the norm since. In September 2022, however, container volumes dropped below volumes recorded in the same month in 2019 for the first time since mid-2020 and statistics just released by Container Trade Statistics have confirmed the trend.
In 2023, only seven product tankers with combined deadweight tonnes (DWT) capacity of 265,000 were recycled. This was a year-on-year drop of 82% compared to 1.5 million DWT (27 product tankers) recycled in 2022. It was also the lowest level of recycling seen since records began in 1996.
China’s property market is estimated to account for approximately 35% of the country’s steel demand. It is an important driver for economic growth and raw materials like iron ore, coking coal, wood, and cement. Overall, the Chinese economy is a significant driver of dry bulk and more than 35% of dry bulk volumes are destined for China.
On 18 November, India’s government removed export tariffs on iron ore and some intermediary steel products. However, this was not enough to keep domestic ship demolition prices from dropping to USD 525 per Light Displacement Tonnage (LDT) at the end of November, 7.9% lower than at the end of October.
Since the European Union sanctioned Russian oil exports in 2022, crude oil and dirty and clean petroleum products (CPP) have found new buyers. India and China have taken most of the crude oil and dirty products while Türkiye and Brazil have emerged as the main buyers of CPP. Year-to-date, Brazil’s import of Russian CPP has increased by 135% year-on-year.
By agreeing to an additional voluntary production cut within OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) of 500,000 barrels per day in May and announcing a further independent production cut of 1,000,000 barrels per day in July, Saudi Arabia is aiming to reduce excess supply and support prices.
