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As the recovery continues to move forward, the bumps in the road are both new “friends” and old “foes”. We are still concerned with the lack of inflation in both the US and Eurozone, as production capacity far exceeds demand.
2014 is off to a good start, as global economic growth is already stronger than anticipated three months ago. At the end of January, the IMF upwardly adjusted its estimates for global economic development in 2013-2015. Amongst the countries receiving noticeable positive adjustments were the US, Japan, Spain, UK, China and India.
The recovery in the advanced economies continues to strengthen as fiscal consolidation is slowing down and investors are less worried about the debt situation. We have seen this with several southern European nations now being able to tap into the financial markets once again at interest rate levels signalling improved health.
GDP growth and high trade multipliers have benefitted the shipping industry through higher trade volumes, but this could be as good as it gets.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised down its predictions for global growth in 2019 and 2020. It forecasts growth to be 3.5% in 2019 and 3.6% in 2020. This means a dampening of global growth over the next two years, as growth in 2018 is estimated to be 3.7% The slowdown will affect both advanced and emerging economies.
A continued slowdown in global growth, as well as a lower trade multiplier will reduce overall demand for shipping for the rest of this year and through 2020.
Economic growth around the world is slowing, and several governments – including Germany, China and South Korea – have announced stimulus packages to boost their economies.
Global economic growth continues to slow with recession warnings sounding in many corners of the world, none of which points to high global trade volume growth for the time being.
The recent months’ uptick in global indicators, which implies a strengthening in the global economy, is not sufficient for the patient to be discharged yet. The state of the global economy is still uncertain, despite stronger growth dynamics in advanced economies, and not least in China.
It will not be a surprise if we see another downward revision of GDP growth in 2017...
