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Join Peter Sand as he provides his latest dry bulk outlook at the INTERCEM Shipping Forum in Málaga, Spain on 21 January 2020.
One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently - which will affect shipping demand in the years to come - is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
A continued slowdown in global growth, as well as a lower trade multiplier will reduce overall demand for shipping for the rest of this year and through 2020.
Delivered tonnage of crude oil tankers have grown by +37%, whereas total fleet demolitions for 2019 have slumped to the lowest in a decade with a reduction of 52% from the year before.
Combined soya bean exports from Brazil and the US are down 7.8% in the first eight months of this year, as the main Brazilian soya bean export season disappointed.
BIMCO expects the fundamental market balance to deteriorate in 2019 which will do nothing to improve freight rates as the 2020 sulphur cap nears.
Even with the sulphur cap expected to give a boost to the tanker market, high fleet growth will put pressure on earnings.
Global economic growth continues to slow with recession warnings sounding in many corners of the world, none of which points to high global trade volume growth for the time being.
Global growth in container volumes has picked up slightly in the second quarter of the year, with growth in the first seven months reaching 1.2%, compared to the just 0.8% in the first quarter.
April was a disappointing month for the crude oil shipping industry with a dramatic fall in US crude oil exports which caused tonne mile demand to fall disproportionally.
