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Commercial navigation: strategy, timing and managing uncertainty

The NZF delay reshapes risk rather than removing it. Flexibility has become a commercial strategy in its own right.

The postponement of the IMO’s NZF by one year has reshaped the commercial landscape for fleet operators in ways that are both stabilising and destabilising. While the destination has not changed, the pace at which the industry is expected to reach it has eased temporarily.

This additional time allows operators to reassess their strategies yet simultaneously introduces a new layer of uncertainty at a moment when clarity is most needed. Fleet operators now face a delicate balancing act: using the breathing space to make informed, strategic decisions while ensuring that delayed action does not leave them exposed once regulatory requirements enter into force.

In this transitional environment, every decision carries both opportunity and cost and the margin for error is small.

several bulk ships in the ocean with land in sight

For many companies, the delay has prompted a pause and reassessment of major capital decisions, particularly investments in dual-fuel newbuildings or large-scale retrofits. Such commitments require confidence in fuel availability, bunkering infrastructure, pricing stability and forthcoming compliance thresholds, all of which remain in flux.

Questions persist about which fuels will gain long-term traction, how technical standards will evolve and how these developments will influence charter dynamics, financing conditions and operational viability. Until these issues begin to crystallise, operators are cautious about committing to pathways that could later prove misaligned or lead to stranded-asset risk.

Against this backdrop, commercial strategy is increasingly defined by flexibility. Operators are prioritising low-risk improvements that deliver immediate benefits without locking their fleets into a single trajectory.

Energy-efficiency upgrades, voyage-optimisation tools, hull and propeller maintenance and modular retrofit options offer performance gains while preserving optionality. These measures reduce emissions, improve charter attractiveness and limit exposure to future compliance costs, all without requiring a long-term bet on a particular fuel.

Yet even this measured approach has implications: deferring investment may heighten exposure to freight-rate volatility and erode competitiveness once the regulation takes effect.

Shutterstock 1928699927 co2 high low emissions graphic

Charter markets continue to play a critical role in shaping commercial behaviour. Time-charter agreements increasingly incorporate GHG-adjustment clauses or efficiency incentives, while spot contracts offer the flexibility to react quickly to fuel-price dynamics and regulatory shifts.

Charterers continue to emphasise emissions performance, fuel efficiency, transparent reporting and readiness for future compliance. As a result, maintaining a fleet that is adaptable, efficient and demonstrably forward-looking is becoming an important commercial differentiator.

Today, immediately actionable measures, such as hull cleaning, propeller polishing and incremental efficiency upgrades, remain attractive, while full-scale retrofits are often deferred until there is greater regulatory clarity.

Success in this environment hinges on managing timing: balancing flexibility, risk mitigation and strategic foresight while continuously reassessing regulatory developments, market signals, port readiness and fuel availability.

Acting too early, by investing heavily before regulatory clarity emerges, risks committing to technologies or fuels that may become commercially unviable. Acting too late may undermine competitiveness, limit access to preferred trades or force high-pressure retrofit decisions under less favourable conditions.

Each operator’s optimal strategy is shaped by its charterer base, risk profile, financial capacity, fleet composition and trade patterns, reinforcing the reality that there is no single decarbonisation pathway that fits all business models.

Every decision carries both commercial opportunity and potential risk, and the market is keenly aware that missteps in this transitional environment can be extremely costly.

- Marina Christoulaki

The challenge lies in balancing flexibility, risk management, and strategic foresight, continuously re-evaluating opportunities as regulatory frameworks, market conditions, and infrastructure evolve.

- Marina Christoulaki

Decarbonisation is inevitable, yet success will hinge on timing, strategy, and collaboration across the value chain.

- Marina Christoulaki

Commercial reality check

Energy efficiency remains the lowest-risk investment

Charter terms increasingly reflect emissions performance

Timing, not just technology, determines competitiveness

Offshore sector: a parallel transition with distinct realities

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