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SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK
In the first quarter of 2024, global iron ore shipments rose 3.8% y/y on expectation of strong Chinese steel production which, however, failed to materialise. Iron ore supply has grown faster than Chinese demand which could lead to weaker shipments ahead.
February 2023
Record 112m tonnes Indian wheat harvest not seen benefitting global supplies
India is heading for its highest wheat harvest on record of 112 million tonnes this spring. However, exports will likely be limited in the coming year as the country is still recovering from last year’s poor harvest and is expected to focus on rebuilding its own wheat inventories.
Does the 1.1% m/m decline in US retail sales spell more trouble for container volumes?
Despite falling 1.1% m/m in both November and December, US retail sales volumes remain 13% above 2019 levels and 6% higher than the pre-COVID trend. However, sales volumes could return to trend during 2023 and thereby pose a risk for Asia to North America container volumes.
January 2023
Baltic Dry Index slides as iron ore shipments kick off 2023 with 13.1% drop
Despite hopes that a quick economic recovery in China would boost iron ore demand, 2023 has so far been a disappointment for the dry bulk shipping sector. During the first three weeks of the year, iron ore shipments fell 13.1% y/y, the lowest volume since at least 2019, worsening conditions for capesizes. In this period, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) declined by almost 500 points to 763 on 20 January, its lowest point since June 2020.
Jet fuel volumes down 27% on 2019, Chinese re-opening to offer relief
The airline industry has been hit hard during the COVID-19 pandemic and seaborne jet fuel cargo volumes suffered along with it. In comparison to pre-pandemic levels, available seat kilometres dropped nearly 90% in early 2020.
Coal shipments to China fell 12.2% in 2022, mixed outlook ahead
Weak economic activity, a 10.5% increase in domestic coal mining, and a recovery in coal imports from Mongolia via rail alleviated coal shipments to China in 2022.
Chinese export container rates drop 27% as usual Lunar New Year cargo rush fails
The bad news for liner operators appears to have no end. In a normal year, the weeks leading up to Chinese New Year (CNY) bring an increase in volumes and freight rates. So far, however, the lead-up to CNY in 2023 has been the worst in 13 years.
December 2022
Tankers end 2022 with 78% time charter contribution margin and best 2023 outlook
What a difference a year makes! At the end of 2021, container ships were enjoying a historically strong market and freight and time charter rates had yet to peak. At the same time, dry bulk ships were seeing multi-year high rates slipping away, although still enjoying better returns than in previous years. However, tanker ships were seemingly still stuck in a COVID market rut without any immediate hopes for a strong comeback.
Australia on track for new harvest record and 9.8% jump in wheat exports
Despite floods in November, the Australian wheat production estimate for the 2022/23 marketing year (July 2022 to June 2023) has been increased by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Australian wheat exports could rise 9.8% this marketing year driven by strong harvests and strained global supplies.
Global container volumes fall 9.3% y/y as historic growth cycle ends
From mid-2020, global container export volumes saw strong growth, and combined with increasing port congestion it caused supply chain challenges and historically high liner operator financial results which have been the norm since. In September 2022, however, container volumes dropped below volumes recorded in the same month in 2019 for the first time since mid-2020 and statistics just released by Container Trade Statistics have confirmed the trend.
Demolition prices slip to USD 525 per LDT in India despite policy change
On 18 November, India’s government removed export tariffs on iron ore and some intermediary steel products. However, this was not enough to keep domestic ship demolition prices from dropping to USD 525 per Light Displacement Tonnage (LDT) at the end of November, 7.9% lower than at the end of October.
