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SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK
Year-to-date, Guyana’s oil exports have jumped to 598 thousand barrels per day (kbpd), a 58% year-on-year increase, adding to the growth achieved in previous years. Over the past three years, the average annual growth rate has hit 76%.
July 2023
Key US grain exports could fall 15% in 2023, brighter outlook ahead
US soybean, maize, and wheat exports could fall 15% in 2023 due to droughts that affected harvests last year. However, the upcoming maize harvest may drive a recovery in US grain shipments from the fourth quarter onwards.
June 2023
Chinese coal stocks reach record high as seaborne imports surge 73%
Despite China’s strategy of pursuing increased domestic coal production, which has meant that year-to-date production stands 5.8% higher than last year, its seaborne imports of coal have nevertheless surged 73% y/y so far.
Production cuts bite as Saudi Arabian crude oil exports fall 12% m/m
By agreeing to an additional voluntary production cut within OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) of 500,000 barrels per day in May and announcing a further independent production cut of 1,000,000 barrels per day in July, Saudi Arabia is aiming to reduce excess supply and support prices.
Capesize spot rates hesitant despite 5% rise in demand
During the first five months of 2023, demand for Capesize ships increased 5% y/y while supply increased 3% y/y. Nonetheless, spot rate increases remain hesitant, largely due to concerns over China’s fragile economic recovery.
May 2023
Container spot rates 32% up on 2019 despite weaker supply/demand balance
The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index and the China Containerized Freight Index have dropped by respectively 81% and 72% since January last year. Yet they remain higher than in 2019 despite a worsening supply/demand balance.
Over 15,000 ships could be recycled by 2032, up more than 100% on the last 10 years
Over the next ten years, from 2023 to 2032, more than 15,000 ships with deadweight capacity of more than 600 million tonnes are expected to be recycled, more than twice the amount recycled in the previous ten years.
Brazil’s 2023 maize exports could rise 8%, benefitting shipping
Brazil remains on track for a record maize harvest this year, and exports could rise 8% in 2023. Brazil could thereby become the world’s largest maize exporter this year, which would partially offset weaker harvests in the US, Argentina, and Ukraine, and benefit panamax and supramax ships.
Liner supply falls as operators reduce average sailing speed by 4%
During the COVID-19 pandemic, liner operators increased the average sailing speed by up to 4% due to strong demand and widespread port congestion. Today, the situation is very different and in the first quarter of 2023 the average sailing speed has slowed to 13.8 knots, down 4% y/y, and could drop by 10% before 2025.
April 2023
Indonesian coal exports surge 32% on strong Asia demand
Indonesian seaborne coal exports are expected to surpass 170 million tonnes by the end of April, up 32% on the same period last year. The rise is partly due to improved economic conditions in China and an increase in energy demand as a result.
Secondhand crude tankers reach highest values in 15 years
Secondhand crude tanker values for five-year-old ships hit bottom levels in late 2020 and have since increased by an average 67%. Over the past twelve eventful months values have risen by 34%, reaching their highest level in 15 years.
