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SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK
Global soya bean exports are forecast to grow by 8% between 2023 and 2025 based on data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Stronger import demand from China will be met by larger harvests in the US and Brazil and in the near term, soya beans are expected to be a key growth driver for global grain shipments.
August 2023
Global rice exports could fall 4% due to India's export restrictions
Global rice exports could fall by at least 4% in 2023 because of India’s restrictions on exports and El Niño’s impact on supply. Replacing India’s rice exports is challenging, as India accounts for almost 40% of the world’s export of rice. Low rainfall caused by El Niño is also weakening the outlook for global rice exports in 2024.
Strong Chinese demand drives 7% y/y increase in minor ore exports
Driven by continued growth in minor ore demand in China, global seaborne minor ore exports rose 7% y/y in the first seven months of 2023, vastly outpacing the 2% y/y growth in overall dry bulk exports.
Record high ship deliveries boost container fleet capacity by 4.3%
Deliveries of new container ships during the first seven months of the year reached a new record high of 1.2 million TEU in 2023, beating the previous record by 0.2 million TEU. As recycling of ships has remained low, the fleet capacity has grown 4.3% since January.
Russian seaborne crude oil export volumes fall 16% m/m and may fall further
Russian seaborne crude oil export volumes have remained strong and grew 13% y/y in 2022 despite the invasion of Ukraine. However, after a 4% m/m fall in June, volumes fell another 16% m/m in July, and the Russian administration has announced export cuts for August.
July 2023
Contracting of product tankers jumps 337% in the first half of 2023
The product tanker orderbook to fleet ratio has surged from 5.4% in December 2022 to 9.3% in June 2023, driven by a remarkable 337% y/y rise in contracting during the first half of this year. A spike in freight rates and product tanker demand is likely behind the surge in contracting.
Key US grain exports could fall 15% in 2023, brighter outlook ahead
US soybean, maize, and wheat exports could fall 15% in 2023 due to droughts that affected harvests last year. However, the upcoming maize harvest may drive a recovery in US grain shipments from the fourth quarter onwards.
June 2023
Chinese coal stocks reach record high as seaborne imports surge 73%
Despite China’s strategy of pursuing increased domestic coal production, which has meant that year-to-date production stands 5.8% higher than last year, its seaborne imports of coal have nevertheless surged 73% y/y so far.
Production cuts bite as Saudi Arabian crude oil exports fall 12% m/m
By agreeing to an additional voluntary production cut within OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) of 500,000 barrels per day in May and announcing a further independent production cut of 1,000,000 barrels per day in July, Saudi Arabia is aiming to reduce excess supply and support prices.
Capesize spot rates hesitant despite 5% rise in demand
During the first five months of 2023, demand for Capesize ships increased 5% y/y while supply increased 3% y/y. Nonetheless, spot rate increases remain hesitant, largely due to concerns over China’s fragile economic recovery.
May 2023
Container spot rates 32% up on 2019 despite weaker supply/demand balance
The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index and the China Containerized Freight Index have dropped by respectively 81% and 72% since January last year. Yet they remain higher than in 2019 despite a worsening supply/demand balance.
