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Tanker market report dated 1 February 2019

04 February 2019

In 2010 Libyan oil production topped 1.6 million b/d, 9 years on and crude output since has struggled to come close to sustaining anywhere near that. In 2018, it seemed like progress had been made and looked promising with production averaging almost 1 million b/d, showing signs of a potential road to recovery. With the country effectively split in two and rebel groups holding significant power - both in the east and west - oil facilities have at times been used as monetary and political bargaining tools for different groups to appropriate power. The latest issue concerns the shutdown of Libya’s largest oilfield, El Sharara, which can produce 340,000 b/d and has been offline since December. If Libya wants to fulfil its potential, protecting these oilfields from insurgents will be key. The weekly tanker market report by Gibson Shipbrokers features an overview of the crude oil and oil product tanker market.

Tanker market report dated 1 March 2019

04 March 2019

The US product export market has been transformed over the past decade. Exports of clean petroleum products (CPP) averaged 2.5 million b/d last year, up from just 0.8 million b/d in 2008. Rising trade has been underpinned by rapid growth in US crude production and refiners’ access to cheaper crude feedstock. Refining margins in the US Gulf have generally been stronger in recent years, compared to those seen in other regional markets.  The weekly tanker market report by Gibson Shipbrokers features an overview of the crude oil and oil product tanker market.

Tanker market report dated 9 August 2019

13 August 2019

There may be few new frontiers left in the oil market, with most regions having been tested, even if deemed to be uneconomical in the current oil era. However, from next year there will be a new kid on the block - Guyana. Throughout history, Guyana has hardly made it onto the tanker map. Despite sharing a boarder with Venezuela to the north and Brazil to the south, the country has never produced oil on a commercial scale. Even from a demand perspective, the country imports only minimal volumes of refined products and has no domestic refining capacity.  The weekly tanker market report by Gibson Shipbrokers.

Tanker market report dated 8 February 2019

11 February 2019

On the 23rd of January the US president recognised Venezuela’s national assembly speaker Juan Guaido as interim president of the country and called Maduro’s government “illegitimate”. Soon afterwards, Washington announced tough sanctions against PDVSA, designed to halt US imports of Venezuelan crude. The government stopped short of placing an outright ban; instead, refiners will be able to continue to receive Venezuela’s crude until the 28th of April as long as payments are placed in to a blocked account. Sanctions have already caused chaos and confusion.  Reuters reported earlier this week that over a dozen of tankers involved in oil trade with Venezuela were anchored in the US Gulf, as shippers seek clarity and payment instructions.  The weekly tanker market report by Gibson Shipbrokers features an overview of the crude oil and oil product tanker market.

Tanker market report dated 7 June 2019

18 June 2019

China officially increased tariffs up to 25% on $60 billion of US products from 1st June, following the US decision to increase tariffs on $200bn/year of imports from China to 25% from 10th May. Chinese imports of nearly every US energy commodity now face a tax of up to 25%. Crude is exempt, but China’s imports of US crude have fallen dramatically anyway since the 2nd half of 2018. Despite the trade conflict, US crude exports continue to grow. The loss of trade to China is being offset by higher shipments to other Asia Pacific countries and Europe. Similarly, Chinese crude imports continue to increase, with US barrels being replaced from multiple sources. As such, up until now the impact of US-China trade conflict on the crude tanker market has been very limited, although undoubtedly there would have been stronger long haul VLCC demand, if China had continued buying US crude.  The weekly tanker market report by Gibson Shipbrokers.

Tanker market report dated 12 April 2019

15 April 2019

Like all other crude tanker segments, Suezmax rates have been on a rollercoaster ride over the past six months. Earnings surged in the 4th quarter of last year, in part due to major Turkish Straits delays, in part due to marginal fleet growth. Of course, other factors were at play as well, such as higher Middle East/Russian crude exports in Q4 2019, prior to the re-imposition of the production constraint. The picture now is very different. Earnings on benchmark routes in the Atlantic Basin declined steadily during the 1st quarter, averaging in March close to OPEX. Once again, the decline has been triggered by a combination of factors.  The weekly tanker market report by Gibson Shipbrokers features an overview of the crude oil and oil product tanker market.

Tanker market report dated 21 June 2019

21 June 2019

As we noted in our report dated 7th June, the slowing global economy, partly driven by the ongoing US-China trade war is starting to impact on world oil demand. An increasing number of agencies are factoring in an increased risk of an economic downturn into their projections. In May, the OECD lowered its forecast for global economic growth to 3.2%, whilst the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis recently claimed that world trade had fallen back to its slowest growth rate since the financial crisis.  The weekly tanker market report by Gibson Shipbrokers.

Tanker market report dated 15 March 2019

18 March 2019

Opec crude production fell by 240,000 b/d in February to 30.68 million b/d, its lowest level in 4 years. February numbers show a significant over compliance, with Saudi Arabia leading efforts to implement cuts with a 153% compliance rate, some 170,000 b/d already below their overall target.  Iraq and Saudi Arabia alone contributed 170,000 b/d in additional cuts between them in February alone. However, having already cut production close to their original 2019 target, they may now be missing the opportunity to capture market share in the face of rising demand. The weekly tanker market report by Gibson Shipbrokers features an overview of the crude oil and oil product tanker market.

Tanker market report dated 28 June 2019

02 July 2019

2019 so far has proved to be a year dominated by geopolitical events. The US Administration has placed sanctions on both Iran and Venezuela in a bid to reduce crude exports to zero. Tanker sabotage and disruption in the Middle East Gulf has pushed insurance premiums up and led to some shipowners to avoid the region. Potential disruptions to Libyan supply remain. The US-China trade war has threatened to generate an economic slowdown, adding further market uncertainty. Crude prices have ebbed and flowed, touching highs of $74.57/bbl in April and lows of $54.91/bbl in January as both supply, demand and geopolitical signals vie for supremacy.  The weekly tanker market report by Gibson Shipbrokers.