Tanker Shipping
14 April 2010Floating storage is coming down on the narrowing of market contango, but persists in playing an important part in tanker demand
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Floating storage is coming down on the narrowing of market contango, but persists in playing an important part in tanker demand
Winter all year long seems to be what is needed to balance the tanker market in 2010
Overall annual oil demand growth in 2012 is now expected to come in at 0.9% by the IEA (+800,000 barrels per day), close to last year’s 0.8%, which was a 10-year low (excluding the contracting years of 2008/2009). The rise is exclusively originating from non-OECD countries. The outlook was modestly curtailed by early July on the back of the weaker global economic situation. This translates into a rather slim fundamental support to the tanker segment, but fortunately tanker shipping is so much more than overall oil demand.
The demand situation in tanker shipping is anything but formidable. We see a mixed picture from one trading area to the next and from crude oil to products.
Overall oil demand declined by 0.3 million barrels per day y-o-y in Q4-2011 as the global economy weakened and the winter season did not provide low enough temperatures to stimulate demand. As we have just left 2011 behind us, the final estimates for demand growth stay preliminary for the time being at 3% for product tankers
The demand picture for oil tankers is steady – perhaps a bit too steady if you look at the freight rate movements for VLCC crude oil tankers and MR clean product tankers. This stands in contrast to the spikes that Suezmax owners have achieved during the first five months of 2012.
The positive demand picture that was firming freight rates on benchmark routes in all crude tanker segments towards the end of 2011 and the first two months of 2012 is still hanging around. Almost the same – that is, as Aframax tanker have seen earnings on the benchmark route in the North Sea drop during February to touch the ground before taking rates to currently USD 10,500 per day.
Crude oil tanker tonnage in the size range from Aframax to VLCC is now recycled at the age of just 21, a level not seen since 1995. The poor freight market now increasingly impacts the segment of more mature tankers, effectively reducing the room for more demolition to balance the market.
A fundamentally weak oil demand that is negatively affected by the high oil prices is hampering demand for both crude and product tanker tonnage. The weak demand is set to stay around according to IEA, which projects limited growth in 2011 of 1.5% against the 3.3% rebound growth in 2010.
In a year that is bound to be challenging for tankers, increasing focus will be on the different disruptions affecting the market and bringing about rate spikes