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As the average length of the journey increases, partly due to port congestions in China, soaking up capacity and pushing up spot rates, shipowners will likely be enjoying high freight rates until the end of the year.
Chinese refinery crude oil throughput has reached its highest level ever, with total processed volumes up 12.0% in the first five months of this year compared to 2020, and up 10.9% from the same period in 2019.
US manufacturing of durable goods, which has been lagging the wider recovery of the US economy, hit an all-time high in June when USD 270.5 billion worth of goods was produced.
On 22 July, Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement with Turkey and the United Nations to allow grain exports from three ports in western Ukraine: Yuzhne, Chornomorsk, and Odesa. Combined, the three ports accounted for 65% of the country’s total grain exports over the past five years. Exports could, however, face several difficulties.
At the start of October, the capesize order book was at 20 million DWT, a mere 5% of the capesize fleet. The contracting of newbuild capesize ships has gradually decreased since its peak in 2013 and only 5 million DWT were contracted so far in 2023, down 4% y/y. Low freight rates paired with a young fleet are keeping the order book small.
Gulf of Guinea crude oil exports have year-to-date contributed 13.7% of VLCC’s tonne miles demand and 16.5% of Suezmaxes. A 13.5% y/y drop in Nigerian year-to-date crude oil output has been the main drain on demand and caused a 5.9% decline in tonne miles. A further decline in Gulf of Guinea exports can be expected from mid-2023 when Nigeria’s Dangote refinery begins operation – requiring a sizeable portion of the country’s crude oil – and possibly add to rate volatility.
Immediately following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, crude oil prices increased on fears of supply disruption. In less than two weeks, Brent prices rose from USD 97/barrel to USD 128/barrel. Since then, Brent prices have consistently been above USD 100 and above USD 110 since mid-May. On 5 July, Brent dropped to USD 102.77 and WTI ended at USD 99.50. Some analysts now predict even lower prices before the end of the year.
In the first half of 2022, the Chinese economy was plagued with weak demand and low economic growth, driven in part by their zero COVID policy. The country’s weaker economy caused a lower demand for steel, meaning that production fell by 8.7% y/y as of May.
High energy prices in Europe have shifted aluminium production to China. Due to China’s increasingly depleted bauxite reserves, this shift has resulted in an increase in bauxite shipments, benefitting the capesize segment. Guinea, the world’s largest exporter of bauxite, accounts for around half of traded volumes and has seen a 14.9% increase in bauxite shipments so far in 2022.
Since July 2020, the container market has benefitted from a surge in consumption of goods compared to pre-COVID levels, and head-haul and regional trade volumes have followed. Compared to the same period of 2019, container volumes in the second half of 2020 were up 5.7% while full year 2021 volumes were 9.0% higher. Volumes in the first half of 2022 were up 8.3%, also compared with H1 2019. Despite a growing fleet, capacity supply was unable to keep up as port congestion absorbed as much as 14% of the fleet, data from Sea-Intelligence shows.
