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As an additional aide to the advice promulgated on 9 February 2018, BIMCO urges all members to note the guidance and advice contained in the following security notice for ships operating in the Gulf of Guinea region.
BIMCO, ICS, INTERCARGO, INTERTANKO and OCIMF warns that as the dry season approaches and sea conditions abate, an increase in attacks in the Gulf of Guinea has traditionally been seen, so maritime security risks to vessels operating in the Gulf of Guinea require renewed attention.
The 2015 has started off as a pretty challenging year for the container shipping industry. With volatile spot rates coupled with oversupply and ordering of ever bigger ships, shipowners across the board seem to have a lot on their plates.
Demand: EIA has revised their oil demand forecast upwards for 2011. Global oil demand in 2011 is now expected to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day (MB/day) to 87.8 MB/day assuming consensus trends in the global economy, crude prices development and possible efficiency gains. Growth will be driven entirely by non-OECD countries (+3.8% or +1.6 MB/day), while the OECD sees resumed decline (-0.5% or -0.2 MB/day). The outlook for 2010 remains unchanged at 86.5 MB/day (+2.1% or +1.8 MB/day versus 2009).
Floating storage is coming down on the narrowing of market contango, but persists in playing an important part in tanker demand
Hope for resumed activity in the oil tanker business is growing as the rebellion in Libya appears to be near a conclusion. Tanker shipping has been hurt by the lack of cargoes out of Libya for half a year now. Oil majors and oil service companies are right now getting back to Libya to assess the conditions of the facilities. It is hoped that the oil production can restart soon, opening up for renewed fixing of tankers to lift Libyan oil exports. Without Libyan oil exports, there is no hope for improvements in the tanker rates in the Mediterranean.
Overall, it’s noticeable that record numbers of fixtures and demand for tonnage only produce a short-lived spike at rather low altitudes – making little impact on stretched owners’ financial accounts. Ship owners without a solid cash balance and a strong, or at least sustainable, cash flow will find it increasing difficult to continue in this business at the present level and volatility.
On 12 April 2016, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its updated World Economic Outlook stating that future economic prospects are now so poor that an immediate, proactive response is called for.
Global oil demand is seasonal, with Q1 being the weakest season – again, leaving only upside for the remainder of the year.
The world seems to be awash with oil these days, to an extent that no geo-political tensions in the oil-rich producing nations can make us “scared enough” to hike oil prices. We seem to have become accustomed to a world where such tension is the norm. This is very good news for the world economy, as it brings down the cost of energy – despite a number of ongoing major conflicts and the challenges related to Ebola in West Africa.
