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Since Q1 2013, the significance of US coal exports has seen a considerable setback, with 2016 achieving the same levels as 2009. This is due to the long-haul routes carrying coking coal from the US East Coast and US Gulf Coast to East Asia not operating to the same extent and the EU is demanding less thermal coal.
Capesize: After the surge of activity in the middle of the week, the Capesize market calmed on Friday to welcome the long weekend approaching in most of the countries in both basins.
Capesize: A stronger week overall for the sector as the North Atlantic appeared active with more enquiry since the middle of the week.
Gulf of Guinea crude oil exports have year-to-date contributed 13.7% of VLCC’s tonne miles demand and 16.5% of Suezmaxes. A 13.5% y/y drop in Nigerian year-to-date crude oil output has been the main drain on demand and caused a 5.9% decline in tonne miles. A further decline in Gulf of Guinea exports can be expected from mid-2023 when Nigeria’s Dangote refinery begins operation – requiring a sizeable portion of the country’s crude oil – and possibly add to rate volatility.
As European Union retail trade stagnates, the question for the Far East to Europe container trade will be whether consumers will buy less or cheaper.
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