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This article contains extracts from BIMCO's Reflections 2019, which will be available in full on 2 January 2019 on www.bimco.org and will be sent out to all BIMCO members alongside thier free member copy of BIMCO's Holiday Calendar 2019.
The effects of rising barriers to trade, capital flowing out of emerging market economies, and the elevated geopolitical risk are now clear to everyone.
For the seventh month in a row total US crude oil exports excluding china hit a new all-time high reaching 7.9 million tonnes in September.
The trade war and particularly the Chinese tariffs on imports of US soya beans can now clearly be seen with the start of the soya bean exporting period in the US.
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has adopted a resolution on an action plan which will be completed by 2025 to address marine plastic litter from ships.
Meanwhile the exports of soya beans to China from the US are down 31% for the first eight months and 95% in August alone, compared to the same periods of least year.
Total US crude exports to all destinations other than China hit a new all-time high in August at 6.96 million tonnes.
Starting a trade war is bad for everyone, and shipping is right in the eye of the storm. Adding a new sanctions regime involving the US and Iran is putting another layer of stress on a shipping industry that is struggling to generate profits. Not surprisingly, the IMF’s estimate for world trade volumes was adjusted downwards for both 2018 and 2019 in July.
Months of uncertainty about the potential exemptions of the EU, Canada and Mexico’s exports of steel and aluminium to the US have ended, and with a hard hit.
GDP growth and high trade multipliers have benefitted the shipping industry through higher trade volumes, but this could be as good as it gets.
