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The effects of rising barriers to trade, capital flowing out of emerging market economies, and the elevated geopolitical risk are now clear to everyone.
After the sharp and sudden shock of the pandemic, the economic recovery has begun and it is clear that it will be drawn out and uneven, both geographically and by sector. Though China has returned to growth, most other countries are lagging behind.
Starting a trade war is bad for everyone, and shipping is right in the eye of the storm. Adding a new sanctions regime involving the US and Iran is putting another layer of stress on a shipping industry that is struggling to generate profits. Not surprisingly, the IMF’s estimate for world trade volumes was adjusted downwards for both 2018 and 2019 in July.
The oil market is notoriously linked to geopolitics. Most recently, the political situation in Venezuela creates turmoil in the region and particularly affects crude oil exports.
As weak demand growth is forecasted for the coming quarters, the container shipping industry is set to return to negative margins.
Calling a market turnaround to perfection is pure luck. But scouting for pillars that would support a higher level of demand makes sense. First up is the next Brazilian soya bean export season.
BIMCO’s market analysis team spearheads the launch of a multimedia page on the BIMCO website, where videos and soundbites of the latest market analysis and comments will be available.
BIMCO invites you to join a free webinar discussing the latest outlook for the shipping industry.
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, recently dubbed COVID-19, continues to generate massive economic and financial uncertainty when it comes to China and global shipping.
This analysis explains the recent history, updates you on the current state and displays future changes for crude oil tankers.
