Macro Economics - Uemployment, sovereign debt and deficits remain challenging before growth can firmly be called sustainable 14 October 2010 Global Economy: WTO says that trade is likely to grow by 13.5% in 2010. This is an upward revision of world trade from the March forecast of 10%. The massive growth comes back-to-back with the 2009 decline of 12.2%, and has to be seen in that perspective. However, the news is positive and definitely helpful for the global economy as it struggles to leave the crisis behind and sustain positive growth going forward. Market analysis Macro
Macro Economics 09 February 2010 Recovery is on the way – but unequally distributed, with lack of private consumption in advanced economies Market analysis Macro
Macro Economics - The main shipping drivers looking healthier in a tricky environment 09 June 2010 This recession was caused by a financial crisis, and what we do know about recessions caused by financial crises is that they are followed by very weak recoveries. Market analysis Macro
Macro economics - Slow and fragile recovery 05 December 2010 Achieving a “strong, balanced, and sustained world recovery” - requires two fundamental and difficult economic rebalancing acts according to IMF. First, internal rebalancing: When private demand collapsed, fiscal stimulus helped alleviate the fall in output. But fiscal stimulus has to eventually give way to fiscal consolidation, and private demand must be strong enough to take the lead and sustain growth. Market analysis Macro
Macroeconomics: Regional and global disputes heighten uncertainty and kill optimism and trade growth 30 August 2018 Starting a trade war is bad for everyone, and shipping is right in the eye of the storm. Adding a new sanctions regime involving the US and Iran is putting another layer of stress on a shipping industry that is struggling to generate profits. Not surprisingly, the IMF’s estimate for world trade volumes was adjusted downwards for both 2018 and 2019 in July. Market analysis Macro
Macroeconomics: Economic growth likely to peak in 2018 30 May 2018 GDP growth and high trade multipliers have benefitted the shipping industry through higher trade volumes, but this could be as good as it gets. Market analysis Macro Container Dry cargo Tanker
Macroeconomics: Adverse trade politics and rising trade barriers are challenging the industry 19 November 2018 The effects of rising barriers to trade, capital flowing out of emerging market economies, and the elevated geopolitical risk are now clear to everyone. Market analysis Macro
Macro Economics - The US is jeopardising the global recovery as job creation remains top challenge across the board 15 August 2011 While growth in most emerging and developing economies continues to be strong, slowdowns caused by the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan, weaker than expected activity in the US and shocks to oil supply weighed on the global expansion in the second quarter of the year, the IMF said recently. Market analysis Macro
Macro Economics - Global recovery is taking a breather before growth is expected to resume at a higher pace in the second half of 2011 20 June 2011 The speed of the global recovery has slowed down over the past couple of months, but the prospects for stronger growth in the second half of the year remain intact, as the underlying growth trend as well as job creation continues. But sustaining this may be highly dependent on output and demand solidifying in the coming months. Market analysis Macro
Macro Economics - GDP and world trade growth downwardly adjusted as the double-dip-ghost refuses to leave the stage. 09 October 2011 2011 started out with a lot of optimism fuelled by a surprisingly better-than-expected growth in the second half of 2010. As the year has progressed it has turned into a paradise lost rather than the sustainable recovery we were all hoping for. Since the January issue of World Economic Outlook was released, IMF has reduced the growth expectations for the Global GDP and now expects only 4.0% growth in 2011. If this forecast holds true, it will be the slowest global growth since 2003 – if you discard the crisis-years of 2008 and 2009. Slashing not only its 2011-estimate, the 2012 outlook has been further lowered, cutting a 0.5%-point off the previously expected 4.5%. Growth is not only slowing down, it is also more unevenly distributed. The growth in advanced economies is now set for 1.6% as compared to an estimate of 2.4% 20 months ago. In contrast, Emerging and Developing economies are up 0.1 to reach 6.4 as compared to 20 months ago. Market analysis Macro
