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Macro Economics - Uemployment, sovereign debt and deficits remain challenging before growth can firmly be called sustainable

14 October 2010

Global Economy: WTO says that trade is likely to grow by 13.5% in 2010. This is an upward revision of world trade from the March forecast of 10%. The massive growth comes back-to-back with the 2009 decline of 12.2%, and has to be seen in that perspective. However, the news is positive and definitely helpful for the global economy as it struggles to leave the crisis behind and sustain positive growth going forward.

Macro economics - Slow and fragile recovery

05 December 2010

Achieving a “strong, balanced, and sustained world recovery” - requires two fundamental and difficult economic rebalancing acts according to IMF. First, internal rebalancing: When private demand collapsed, fiscal stimulus helped alleviate the fall in output. But fiscal stimulus has to eventually give way to fiscal consolidation, and private demand must be strong enough to take the lead and sustain growth.

Macro Economics - Global recovery is taking a breather before growth is expected to resume at a higher pace in the second half of 2011

20 June 2011

The speed of the global recovery has slowed down over the past couple of months, but the prospects for stronger growth in the second half of the year remain intact, as the underlying growth trend as well as job creation continues. But sustaining this may be highly dependent on output and demand solidifying in the coming months.

Macro Economics - GDP and world trade growth downwardly adjusted as the double-dip-ghost refuses to leave the stage.

09 October 2011

2011 started out with a lot of optimism fuelled by a surprisingly better-than-expected growth in the second half of 2010. As the year has progressed it has turned into a paradise lost rather than the sustainable recovery we were all hoping for. Since the January issue of World Economic Outlook was released, IMF has reduced the growth expectations for the Global GDP and now expects only 4.0% growth in 2011. If this forecast holds true, it will be the slowest global growth since 2003 – if you discard the crisis-years of 2008 and 2009. Slashing not only its 2011-estimate, the 2012 outlook has been further lowered, cutting a 0.5%-point off the previously expected 4.5%. Growth is not only slowing down, it is also more unevenly distributed. The growth in advanced economies is now set for 1.6% as compared to an estimate of 2.4% 20 months ago. In contrast, Emerging and Developing economies are up 0.1 to reach 6.4 as compared to 20 months ago.