Macro Economics - it should go up from here, but not as quickly as we used to think
11 December 2012The year 2012 has been a turbulent one for the global economy and the outlook has deteriorated since our last forecast.
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The year 2012 has been a turbulent one for the global economy and the outlook has deteriorated since our last forecast.
The recent optimism has fortunately not completely evaporated following the latest series of less positive economic indicators from across the globe, including India, the US, Brazil and Spain. The EU debt situation creates a lot of uncertainty, not only as regards economic development but also regarding the political situation on both sides of the Atlantic Basin.
The recent economic crisis inflicted substantial damage on the public finances of many countries around the world. Enormous stimulus programmes
Finally, we can conclude that a one-sided focus on monetary expansion handled by central banks is not enough anymore.
After lower than expected growth in the first half of 2014, the IMF has once more lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2014 and 2015.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised down its predictions for global growth in 2019 and 2020. It forecasts growth to be 3.5% in 2019 and 3.6% in 2020. This means a dampening of global growth over the next two years, as growth in 2018 is estimated to be 3.7% The slowdown will affect both advanced and emerging economies.
A continued slowdown in global growth, as well as a lower trade multiplier will reduce overall demand for shipping for the rest of this year and through 2020.
It will not be a surprise if we see another downward revision of GDP growth in 2017...
BIMCO reported in our previous macroeconomics report in April 2017 that monthly indicators were showing a strengthening in the global economy. The firm growth dynamics in advanced economies have now, four months later, had a cascade effect on some emerging markets and developing economies (EMDE). This solid growth has sparked an appetite for EMDE assets and indicates that the market expects a pickup.
For the demand side to reap the full benefits of this possible global upturn, globalisation must be embraced and the gains from open trade must be a key focus of the policymaker's agenda, replacing any inward-looking policies