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The dry bulk shipping industry remains on the road to recovery, as demand continues to keep its nose just ahead of fleet growth, while scrapping and ordering remains subdued.
The fragile recovery is stalling because the fleet is growing too fast.
Chinese imports of iron ore keep falling, while its crude steel production keeps growing.
Fleet growth expected to outstrip demand growth in 2019 and 2020, making the near future look unappealing.
Calling a market turnaround to perfection is pure luck. But scouting for pillars that would support a higher level of demand makes sense. First up is the next Brazilian soya bean export season.
BIMCO expects the fundamental market balance to deteriorate in 2019 which will do nothing to improve freight rates as the 2020 sulphur cap nears.
The fundamental balance in the market has worsened in 2019 with supply growth outstripping demand, and BIMCO expects that this will continue into 2020.
One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently - which will affect shipping demand in the years to come - is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
Total imports of iron ore and soya beans were lower in 2018 than in 2017, down 1% and 7.9% respectively, and although imports of coal grew 3.7% in 2018, this was slower than the growth in 2017.
BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst Peter Sand will moderate the “Dry Bulk Market Outlook: Sustaining Cautious Optimism for Calmer Waters” panel discussion, scheduled for 23 November at 16:00-17:30. Peter Sand will be joined by Burak Cetinok, Head of Research at Arrow Shipbroking Group and Angad Banga, Chief Operating Officer at The Caravel Group.
