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During the first nine months of 2023, coal shipments to the world’s second largest importer of seaborne coal, India, fell 9% y/y. A 12% y/y rise in domestic coal mining replaced imports and electricity production continued to rise despite lower production from hydro power.
Weak economic activity, a 10.5% increase in domestic coal mining, and a recovery in coal imports from Mongolia via rail alleviated coal shipments to China in 2022.
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistical challenges started to emerge. Two years after the start of the war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia are limiting the country’s ability to export coal.
Australia and Indonesia, being the main exporters of coal to China, are growing their market share at the expense of longer haul exporters like the US and South Africa.
Indonesian seaborne coal exports are expected to surpass 170 million tonnes by the end of April, up 32% on the same period last year. The rise is partly due to improved economic conditions in China and an increase in energy demand as a result.
Despite China’s strategy of pursuing increased domestic coal production, which has meant that year-to-date production stands 5.8% higher than last year, its seaborne imports of coal have nevertheless surged 73% y/y so far.
The Chinese ban on coal imports from Australia has shaken up coal trades in the east.
In the first seven months of the year Chinese coal imports from Australia have totalled just 780,000 tonnes as Chinese restrictions on Australian coal have started to hurt, according to Oceanbolt.
Due to supply concerns at domestic power plants, Indonesian authorities banned coal exports during January 2022, removing around 30% of global coal volumes from the bulk market as a result. This caused Newcastle coal futures to increase by more than a third and added strain on coal inventories across Asia. The ban was lifted in February.
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