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SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK
The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) fell another 10% in week 39. In total, the SCFI has dropped 43% during the third quarter, the largest Q3 drop in a year not affected by the COVID pandemic (2020-2023) since the SCFI was launched in October 2009.
October 2024
Container spot rates drop 43% in Q3, worst development in non-COVID year
The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) fell another 10% in week 39. In total, the SCFI has dropped 43% during the third quarter, the largest Q3 drop in a year not affected by the COVID pandemic (2020-2023) since the SCFI was launched in October 2009.
September 2024
Strong dry bulk market fuels 42% drop in ship recycling
Between January and August 2024, the number of recycled ships has dropped 42% y/y, the second lowest level in 16 years. The market has seen high freight rates and strong demand, delaying the recycling of older ships. On the supply side, the fleet has continued to grow slowly, limiting fleet renewal.
Chinese seaborne dry bulk imports up 6% despite economic challenges
Between January and August 2024, Chinese seaborne dry bulk imports rose 6% y/y, defying concerns over China’s domestic demand, its real estate crisis and producer price deflation. A combination of inventory build-up and commodity specific developments have contributed to strong import demand.
Coal shipments to India jump 10%, but growth could slow
Between January and August 2024, coal shipments to India rose 10% y/y, outpacing an 8% y/y increase in domestic coal mining. Thermal coal shipments were a key driver, supported by strong electricity demand and coal import mandates. During the rest of 2024, growth may slow as demand cools.
August 2024
Container ship contracting spree now exceeds 10 million TEU
When only six ships with a capacity of 4,746 TEU were contracted in the fourth quarter of 2023, many might have thought that the container ship contracting spree that began in 2021 had finally cooled. However, the appetite for new ships remains high and year-to-date contracting already exceeds the 2023 full year total. That brings the total capacity contracted since the start of 2021 to 10.47m TEU.
Product tanker contracting hits 18-year high after 17% rise y/y
During the first seven months of this year, 194 product tankers larger than 10k deadweight tonnes (DWT) have been contracted with a combined capacity of 13.3m DWT. This is a 17% increase compared to last year and the highest level of contracting since 2006.
US grain exports seen rising 12%, but sailing distances could shorten
In 2024, grain exports from the US are expected to rise 12% from 2023, driven by a rebound in maize shipments. During the first seven months of 2024, shipments have risen 6% y/y and are expected to further ramp up after the upcoming maize and soya bean harvests in September. Water levels in the Mississippi River are at normal levels which should facilitate the transport of the harvests to seaports.
India now depends on Russia for 40% of its crude oil imports
During the past three months, India has relied on Russia for 40% of its seaborne crude oil import. Year-to-date, volumes have reached an average of 1.6 million barrels per day (mbpd), an increase of 1000% compared to 2021, before Russia invaded Ukraine.
July 2024
Container ship fleet expands by 11%, fastest growth in 15 years
Since the beginning of the year, the capacity of the container ship fleet has increased by 1.6m TEU. Compared to one year ago, the capacity has risen 11% to 29.5m TEU, the fastest fleet growth in 15 years.
Dry bulk newbuild contracting fell 34.2%, despite a strong market
During the first half of 2024, newbuild contracting in the dry bulk sector fell 34.2% y/y despite favourable market conditions. A 6.5% y/y increase in prices could be deterring contracting, yet in the second-hand market, where prices rose 15.2% y/y, the number of sales still increased 11.7% y/y. Other factors, such as limited shipyard availability and uncertainty on fuels and demand outlook could be contributing to this hesitation.
