Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter.
The fragile recovery is stalling because the fleet is growing too fast.
The continued severity of the tanker market conditions has made owners dig deep into the oversupply of capacity. Still BIMCO expects the tanker fleet to keep growing. A short-term rate recovery is not expected, as it is ‘maintenance season’ for the global refining industry in September and October.
By examining our fleet-growth estimate alone, 2019 looks like a year in which the fundamental balance can only improve. But the trade war remains the wild card here.
The effects of rising barriers to trade, capital flowing out of emerging market economies, and the elevated geopolitical risk are now clear to everyone.
For the seventh month in a row total US crude oil exports excluding china hit a new all-time high reaching 7.9 million tonnes in September.
The trade war and particularly the Chinese tariffs on imports of US soya beans can now clearly be seen with the start of the soya bean exporting period in the US.