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The outlook is poor for dry bulk, as the negative demand shock and overcapacity come together to send rates to multi-year lows, even a return to work in China is not enough to support the market.
The Covid-19 crisis has – and will continue to – hit the container shipping market hard, and the current economic situation provides no hope for a short-term recovery.
No V-shaped recovery in sight after the large-scale shutdown of economic activity and the virus posing a risk to globalisation.
Geopolitical tensions have now eased, leaving freight rates to feel the full effects of the weak underlying market and falling demand. Tanker shipping looks set to be under pressure for the rest of the year.
Throughout April, container shipping spot freight rates on the back-haul trade from North Europe to China were higher than those on the front-haul trade from China to North Europe.
This is not the post-2020 environment we expected. The event examined the key issues that marine fuel stakeholders from buyers to suppliers face today. How did we get here, and what can we expect in the months ahead? Is there any IMO 2020 hangover at all, or is the focus now only on dealing with the reality of new market dynamics and the changing economic landscape? Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO provided the Shipowners' Perspective.
Watch the video recording
From the drastic decrease in oil demand to lockdown in manufacturing, Peter provided an overview of the macroeconomic challenges being faced by individual shipping sectors and subsequently indicators of how the breakbulk and project cargo sectors are faring through the current pandemic.
November 2017
This ongoing recovery is still in a "fragile" state - demand has increased but so has supply.
This is the highest global oil demand ever but it's also a large and growing fleet. What the tanker market needs most right now is more tankers engaged in floating storage facility.
October 2017
In 2019, global oil demand is forecast to pass the symbolic 100 million barrels per day threshold (International Energy Agency). Developing countries account for almost all of the growth and Asia dominate. BIMCO stated in its forecast for 2017, that the tanker demand growth for 2017 is expected to come predominantly from the greater Asia region, led by China. China has met expectations by ramping up its import of seaborne crude oil by 13% for the first nine months of 2017 compared to the same period last year. As China is importing crude oil from further afield in 2017 than in 2016, the tonne miles generated has surged 18%.
BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst Peter Sand will moderate the “Dry Bulk Market Outlook: Sustaining Cautious Optimism for Calmer Waters” panel discussion, scheduled for 23 November at 16:00-17:30. Peter Sand will be joined by Burak Cetinok, Head of Research at Arrow Shipbroking Group and Angad Banga, Chief Operating Officer at The Caravel Group.
BIMCO’s President Anastasios Papagiannopoulos will moderate the “Smart Shipping” panel discussion, scheduled for 10 October at 11:45. The panel will discuss novel ship design, cyber security and digitalisation – all key issues with a specific bearing on the future.
September 2017
BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst Peter Sand will deliver the closing keynote speech, “What is happening in the shipping markets” at Digital Ship’s 4th Annual Maritime CIO Forum in Rotterdam on 26 September 2017, at the Hilton hotel in Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Shipping industry outlook webinar, hosted by Andrew Mina Assistant Manager, Training at BIMCO and presented by Peter Sand Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.
August 2017
BIMCO reported in our previous macroeconomics report in April 2017 that monthly indicators were showing a strengthening in the global economy. The firm growth dynamics in advanced economies have now, four months later, had a cascade effect on some emerging markets and developing economies (EMDE). This solid growth has sparked an appetite for EMDE assets and indicates that the market expects a pickup.
As freight rates are coming back from the abyss, their actual rise seems to be magnified beyond their actual performance. Some container spot freight rates are up more than 100% from the very low levels of last year, but may still be at a loss-making level now and so spot rates are not the best indicator for market profitability.
Since early July, the capesize rates have gone up and up. By mid-August, they had reached a breakeven level to become profitable. BIMCO estimates that a capesize ship on average fleet financing and operational cost levels, turns profitable when rates are above $15,300 per day.
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