The turbulence of the past year has in many ways clouded the underlying fundamentals in the dry bulk shipping market, but with 2020 now behind us, we are in a better position to establish an overview of expectations for 2021.
October has been the best performing month of 2020 in terms of US exports of the goods outlined in the ‘Phase One’ trade agreement between the US and China. Export values of these goods totalled USD 10.3 billion, breaking the previous high of USD 7.8b in September.
There has been much talk in recent weeks and months about Chinese coal policy, particularly with regard to imports from Australia, after anecdotal evidence suggest Chinese importers have been told to shun Australian thermal coal.
There is money to be made by both carriers and tonnage providers as volumes defy usual seasonality and remain strong into the fourth quarter of the year. On top of that, low bunker prices –, one of the keys to high profitability this year – look set to stick around.
This year, tanker shipping will not benefit from the usual strong winter seasonal effect. Though the new lockdowns being introduced in many countries are less strict than in the spring, the effect on tanker shipping will be worse, given the oil supply glut of Q2.
Record-breaking GDP drops seen in the second quarter of the year have been replaced by record-breaking growth rates in the third. Despite this, the major economies of the world have still not returned to pre-pandemic levels, except China.
The third webinar in our series on the future of the commercial shipping markets.
The webinar had Mark Williams, Managing Director at Shipping Strategy, as the special guest speaker and Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, debating the current developments in the shipping markets. The two touched upon the impact of the pandemic and the ways in which shipping sectors navigate through tumultuous times.
The second webinar in our series on the future of the commercial shipping markets.
Paul Marsh, Research Director at Navig8 Group as the special guest speaker and our very own Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand set the scene by discussing the macroeconomics changes brought by the pandemic and how they accentuated the geopolitical tensions felt by the oil tanker shipping industry. The two analysts then share their views on what lies ahead for the crude and petroleum products carries.
July 2018
The trade war adds painful uncertainty for the shipping industry, as it distorts the free flow of goods, changes trade lanes and makes it difficult for ship operators and owners to position their ships efficiently in the market.
June 2018
Months of uncertainty about the potential exemptions of the EU, Canada and Mexico’s exports of steel and aluminium to the US have ended, and with a hard hit.
May 2018
Overcapacity remains in the sector, where fleet growth is extremely uneven.
The dry bulk shipping industry remains on the road to recovery, as demand continues to keep its nose just ahead of fleet growth, while scrapping and ordering remains subdued.
GDP growth and high trade multipliers have benefitted the shipping industry through higher trade volumes, but this could be as good as it gets.
The impact of the sanctions against Iran and global stockpile levels are two factors to watch out for.
When two of the world’s top trading partners, get entangled in a stand-off, where the outbreak of a trade war could become the extended tool of intense negotiations, we’d better prepare for what may come. While hoping that it will never take place.
A “Power panel” debate on the dry bulk and oil tanker shipping markets, including the 2020 global sulphur cap experiment. Sign up here
April 2018
The shipping of soya beans from the US to China is one of the most significant ‘one commodity’ cargoes that may become affected by the trade war between the US and China.
BIMCO’s market analysis team launches a graph section, where BIMCO members can get an overview of a specific sector and how the supply side of that sector develops.