The turbulence of the past year has in many ways clouded the underlying fundamentals in the dry bulk shipping market, but with 2020 now behind us, we are in a better position to establish an overview of expectations for 2021.

October has been the best performing month of 2020 in terms of US exports of the goods outlined in the ‘Phase One’ trade agreement between the US and China. Export values of these goods totalled USD 10.3 billion, breaking the previous high of USD 7.8b in September.

There has been much talk in recent weeks and months about Chinese coal policy, particularly with regard to imports from Australia, after anecdotal evidence suggest Chinese importers have been told to shun Australian thermal coal.

There is money to be made by both carriers and tonnage providers as volumes defy usual seasonality and remain strong into the fourth quarter of the year. On top of that, low bunker prices –, one of the keys to high profitability this year – look set to stick around.

This year, tanker shipping will not benefit from the usual strong winter seasonal effect. Though the new lockdowns being introduced in many countries are less strict than in the spring, the effect on tanker shipping will be worse, given the oil supply glut of Q2.

Record-breaking GDP drops seen in the second quarter of the year have been replaced by record-breaking growth rates in the third. Despite this, the major economies of the world have still not returned to pre-pandemic levels, except China.