The turbulence of the past year has in many ways clouded the underlying fundamentals in the dry bulk shipping market, but with 2020 now behind us, we are in a better position to establish an overview of expectations for 2021.
October has been the best performing month of 2020 in terms of US exports of the goods outlined in the ‘Phase One’ trade agreement between the US and China. Export values of these goods totalled USD 10.3 billion, breaking the previous high of USD 7.8b in September.
There has been much talk in recent weeks and months about Chinese coal policy, particularly with regard to imports from Australia, after anecdotal evidence suggest Chinese importers have been told to shun Australian thermal coal.
There is money to be made by both carriers and tonnage providers as volumes defy usual seasonality and remain strong into the fourth quarter of the year. On top of that, low bunker prices –, one of the keys to high profitability this year – look set to stick around.
This year, tanker shipping will not benefit from the usual strong winter seasonal effect. Though the new lockdowns being introduced in many countries are less strict than in the spring, the effect on tanker shipping will be worse, given the oil supply glut of Q2.
Record-breaking GDP drops seen in the second quarter of the year have been replaced by record-breaking growth rates in the third. Despite this, the major economies of the world have still not returned to pre-pandemic levels, except China.
The third webinar in our series on the future of the commercial shipping markets.
The webinar had Mark Williams, Managing Director at Shipping Strategy, as the special guest speaker and Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, debating the current developments in the shipping markets. The two touched upon the impact of the pandemic and the ways in which shipping sectors navigate through tumultuous times.
The second webinar in our series on the future of the commercial shipping markets.
Paul Marsh, Research Director at Navig8 Group as the special guest speaker and our very own Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand set the scene by discussing the macroeconomics changes brought by the pandemic and how they accentuated the geopolitical tensions felt by the oil tanker shipping industry. The two analysts then share their views on what lies ahead for the crude and petroleum products carries.
December 2018
2018 has been a slow year for dry bulk demolitions, with only 4.2 million DWT scrapped (as of 17 December), down 71.6% compared to last year. An almost total halt in Panamax demolitions has been an important factor behind this fall, with demolition in every ship segment down.
This article contains extracts from BIMCO's Reflections 2019, which will be available in full on 2 January 2019 on www.bimco.org and will be sent out to all BIMCO members alongside thier free member copy of BIMCO's Holiday Calendar 2019.
BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst will be participating at the INTERCEM Shipping Forum in Rome, Italy on 22 January 2019 and the Slide2Open Shipping Finance Conference in Athens, Greece on 24 January 2019.
November 2018
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter.
The continued severity of the tanker market conditions has made owners dig deep into the oversupply of capacity. Still BIMCO expects the tanker fleet to keep growing. A short-term rate recovery is not expected, as it is ‘maintenance season’ for the global refining industry in September and October.
The fragile recovery is stalling because the fleet is growing too fast.
The effects of rising barriers to trade, capital flowing out of emerging market economies, and the elevated geopolitical risk are now clear to everyone.
By examining our fleet-growth estimate alone, 2019 looks like a year in which the fundamental balance can only improve. But the trade war remains the wild card here.
For the seventh month in a row total US crude oil exports excluding china hit a new all-time high reaching 7.9 million tonnes in September.
The trade war and particularly the Chinese tariffs on imports of US soya beans can now clearly be seen with the start of the soya bean exporting period in the US.